Many Nights and a Day

"Long years ago, we made a tryst with destiny. Now the time has come when we shall redeem our pledge - not wholly or in full measure - but very substantially. At the stroke of the midnight hour, when the world sleeps, India will awake to life and freedom. A moment comes, but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new, when an age ends, and when the soul of a nation, long suppressed, finds utterance." –Jawaharlal Nehru, 15 August 1947
At 3 AM in Juba, but people was sleepless, singing, dancing in the streets. We hardly could take our Sudanese driver out of the party back to home. MD. Thon Paul was telling that his father died for this moment. Another man stays home remembering his 8 dead brothers. Many years, fathers and sons hoped for this moment, keeping the dream in their whispers, Freedom, the moment a man can say, however drunk, “independent at last”.
I absorbed the great feeling of freedom tonight, the joy that Algerians felt in 1962, Libyan had in 1951, and India in 1947, nevertheless Iranians felt after winning their sovereignty back from Khalifs. Whatever happens next is on her own, practically there is no other person to blame.
Everybody is happy with the birth of a country, and I pray for those two poor thieves, maybe dead or waiting to die in the Nile. What kind of country has just been born?

Soul of a Nation
“You may be a Zande, Kakwa, Lutugo, Nuer, Dinka or Shiluk, but first remember yourself as a South Sudanese. There will be equal access to existing opportunities for all,” First Republic of South Sudan President says to cherished audience in Dr. John Garang’s museum.
Living in a tribal country, people still identify themselves with their tribes, clans, and villages. Rebels in South Sudan still represent some of these social factions. The late Dr. John Garang, former leader of SPLM, foresaw the challenge of building a society in this region, ad tried to fight for whole South Sudan authority under SPLM umbrella, South Sudan People’s Liberation Army rather than discreet tribal armies, while he accepted the tribal identity. His successor, President Salva Kiir, preaches this idea still, coexistence of religions, tribes and colors in a secular, equal nation. Do they learn from same practices in Europe?
Now the new government faces many groups of rebels; many of whom are representing tribes and other ideologies. “I want to offer public amnesty to all those who took arms against the people of South Sudan. Let them lay down these arms and help us in building this new nation,” President Kiir said in the ceremony.

Starting Over
Compared to the north, South Sudan has more natural resources with less real capacity on the ground. Oil refineries are in North while South has oil reserves, which makes trouble with tough negotiations.
Majority of population live in extreme poverty (less than 1.25 $/day). 85% have small low productive farming. Only 25 MWh power is the capacity of the public power generation, high-cost small generators produce the rest. Only a beer factory, few water purification, and very few others make the whole industry.
But the development plans are extensive. Many big and medium size international firms have sent their delegates to study and negotiate plans. As an advisor to South Sudan Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture (SSCCIA) I see private sector and government officials every day, looking for answers, collaboration or connection.
Government plans to for few dams over Nile, to produce over 1000 MWh power. Services like transportation, logistics and hospitality have great chance for business. Mining and associated industries like cement are negotiating. In agriculture, especially Cereal, Oil seeds, Sugar and special products like Gum Arabic are the next profitable businesses with high social impact in poor communities.
Here it comes the limits; government is new and needs time to regain capacity. Financial plans don’t meet their reality. Low capacity increases the likelihood of destructive corruption, which wrong-minded investors would take advantage of.
What new South Sudan can afford is more like minimal but credible government, free market with a vision to build capacity.
Love-hate affair with North
In the celebration, both presidents of new countries recognized the historical relationship of both nations. Three thousand years of common history. On such historical event, South Sudan president Kiir decided to keep the last flag of Republic of Sudan in South in national archives, as a sign for this relationship.
On the other hand, the growing movement of De-Arabization rises in the south. Southeners react to oppression of Northern government especially the brutality in a longest war in Africa that claimed millions. The war still goes on beyond borders; Nubian tribe, divided by border, are fighting for their independence, and possibly joining new South.
The substantial remaining issues to negotiate are Abiye administration, sharing oil revenue and massive debt. Both sides made many compromises in intense negotiations.
South Sudan has to recover from these deep wounds, and reconcile with North with new terms of engagement, respect, equality and free market. South will have great market in north while Northerners have good investment opportunities in South.

International Cooperation
In the biggest day of new country, once again delegates of nations pledged to support new country. AU, EAC and UN leaders have promised the early acceptance of RoSS to their communities and agreements. British, United States and many others established their own embassies right away. Thousands of NGO, private or foreign state employees celebrated the event in South Sudan. Famous, and sometimes notorious, presidents of Africa were supporting the ceremony, Robert Mugabe (Zimbabwe), Yoweri Museveni (Uganda), Mwai Kibaki (Kenya), Girma Wolde-Giorgis (Ethiopia), and Jacob Zuma (South Afica).
Since playing the substantial role in establishment of CPA and new country, also vital health and food contributions, foreign countries gain power in South Sudan. Although existence of foreigners would add a watchdog to the region for peace, welfare and human rights, it would compromise the sovereignty of the government. Like Haiti that massive international aides destroyed the market, here, uncontrolled flow of aides distorts the market.

To build a country you only need piece of land with a name, a flag, coat of arms, anthem, and an internationally accepted government, to build a nation, you definitely need more.

If you can't beat them, marry them

Three weeks ago we were invited to a wedding that brought together the lineages of two prominent Bari families. The Bari speaking tribes of South Sudan are from Western, Central and Eastern Equatoria, and were dominant in politics up until fairly recently. In a country with such abundant and overwhelming poverty, it was initially quite shocking to see the bride arrive in a stretch limousine. I was also surprised to find myself sitting next to a Dinka man. We have gathered from our colleagues that Bari speakers tend not to get along with the Dinka, who have now become the politically dominant group.

This man, however, had married a Bari woman, which explained his presence at the wedding. As the speeches, sermons and songs proceeded, my companion described his life. He was six foot six, drunk, shell-shocked and thankful for peace. He spoke with outgoing pride, but also with a latent sense of regret. He was proud of his heritage and achievements, but disturbed by violent memories and the loss of friends and family for the cause of freedom.

A day that ended with a wedding started with a hike up Juba’s highest peak. From the windy top of Jebel Mountain, we could see the dusty streets of Juba below and the vast green plains beyond it. As I admired the rock formations close by I couldn’t help but think about the country’s future. For most of us it is difficult to conceive of the joy that will come with the South’s secession on July 9^th. After centuries of fighting invaders, oppressors and enslavers, independence is a goal that has been elusive. One colleague said, “Our generation is very lucky, because we will witness something that our fathers and grandfathers fought for all of their lives and that many died for.”

However, in South Sudan’s history, fighting has not only been directed towards outsiders. For centuries various tribes within South Sudan have quarreled viciously - among them the Dinka and the Nuer. The most recent conflict between the Bor Dinka and the Nuer started in 1991. Riek Machar, a Nuer general in the SPLA and the current vice-president of the South Sudan, had left the SPLA and organized his own militia to “liberate” South Sudan. One of the Bor Dinka community’s worst moments was when this militia stole their children, women and cattle and massacred most of their elders. These memories and others are vivid in the minds of the South Sudanese - the future of the country depends on their willingness to forgive and forget.

Two weeks after the Bari wedding, we were in Malakal, a city in the state of Upper Nile, close to the border with Northern Sudan. On the negotiation table $50,000 was at stake: 170 cows in the form of bamboo sticks. To a passing outsider this may have seemed like a tense military affair. On one side of the room sat the Nuer and on the other sat the Bor Dinka. High ranking officials from the government and military from all over the country were sitting on both sides. Surrounding the colorful tent were at least a dozen armed soldiers. As the negotiation advanced, each party would step out of the large colorful tent to have private conversations and then come back to share their new position.

Given their history, it was hard to believe that these groups were sitting under one tent. But today, years of anger and tension have been left behind to celebrate a wedding, to be more precise, step 5 in the 7 step Nuer marriage process: the dowry negotiation. This is a marriage of love between two individuals and a marriage of commitment between two families. It is in a sense a celebration of peace, an initial step towards reconciliation and a sign of commitment to national unity. Two weeks from the birth of the Republic of South Sudan, this couple embodies the leadership of a new generation of South Sudanese, educated abroad but deeply connected to their traditions.

This negotiation ended with both families agreeing on the bride’s price. Over the next two weeks, the groom’s family will pay 75 cows in cows, 75 cows in cash, 4 spears, 2 hoes and 4 goats. 1 cow must be provided today for the traditional Nuer god and 4 cows must be white cows from the groom’s hometown, Bor. Once the dowry was agreed upon, various members of both parties gave reconciliatory speeches offering their best wishes to the couple. The formal ceremony ended with a local Christian bishop emphasizing the new generation’s responsibility to build bridges between communities in conflict. A feast and dancing followed. The first dance involved Nuer women pretending to spear Dinka men, who dodged the imaginary spears on a large field. The dancing continued around the drums with men and women jumping up and down. It was a moment of joy and excitement for all.

Now, as I fly back to Juba over the vast expanse of South Sudanese terrain, I wonder whether the peaceful intentions we observed this weekend will last. If the threat of a common enemy is reduced, can South Sudan’s many factions get along? How will this new country face the challenge of development and overcome the vestiges of war? One can only hope that the new generation of South Sudanese will forge for themselves a peaceful and prosperous nation.

Reverse Immigration to South Sudan

Last week, on 17 June 20, 2011 a simple crash between two buses in Sudan-Uganda border in Nemule killed 29 people, 23 were Ugandans.
Checking the facts, I remember the famous streamlines of immigration, from Mexico to United States, From Africa to Europe and from South East Asia to Australia. All from poor countries to developed countries. People choose to be poor in developed country not rich in poor one.
What I see in South Sudan is something not less than a phenomenon; after years of South Sudanese refugees in Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt, now we see a sheer inflow of immigrants. I really cannot say illegal because there is no enforceable law of immigration. They come and live in horrible conditions and wait to find a job here. Their income is more than their own countries; and their demanded wage is less than the South Sudanese equivalents.
I propose the following explanations for this phenomenon:
(1) After long civil war, the country is left with low number of skillful people. A part of these immigrants are skilled workers that fill this gap.
(2) For certain reasons, the service sector of urban economy (hotelling, transportation, education) has higher prices than neighbors. Here workers can earn much more than what it is in neighboring countries.
(3) Usually immigrants arrive alone, but local workers have a family. Therefore, by the fact that South Sudan has higher living cost the demanded wage is higher for local families. If this is important we might be able to see an increase in age of marriage, working women and less fertility in future. Now family size is 5-6 in South Sudan.
(4) Immigrants have better sense of entrepreneurship. They have seen how their countrymen start a business.
(5) With the big community of immigrants in urban area, it is easier to get a job for immigrants. An Eritrean hotel manager usually hires Eritrean or Ethiopian waiters.
“Lebanese in Africa (through Social networks and through French colonization), chinese in Africa” Madalina thinks of these immigration streamlines, ” through government loans that help the start of overseas businesses, and then through social networks.” For me, not being funded by their governments, it is more like European flow to new continent in 1600′sto1800′s, finding new opportunities for entrepreneurship. Still in each case I am not sure about capital outflow to their homes. After all, Europeans tend to live much longer in America by reinvestment of their income.
Why this is important? Although by classical theories this is not important fact, and competition in open market brings efficiency, I think the reverse immigration is going both ways for growth.
As a driving force, it brings new income for the economy and attracts new foreign investments; however, most of these workers save most of their income to send it back to their homes. This way usually they don’t invest to extend their own business here. Maybe this is because of (a) constraints of the nature of residence here, (2) lack of enforceability of contracts between principles and workers. Usually they can trust in personal trust between workers and principles.
In general, 70% of investment is reinvestment; we should facilitate these reinvestments, but how? That’s another story.